Stepwise evolution of the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene revealed by a stalagmite record from Heifeng Cave, Southwest China

The abrupt changes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the Holocene have long been of interest to environmental scientists. Here, RAMPFIT and Bayesian Change Point (BCP) analyses are applied to analyze the stalagmite δ¹⁸O record from Heifeng Cave in southern China, and the results show that it is characterized by a distinct stepwise pattern of variation which can be divided into six stages (Stages, S) and five transitional phases (Transitions, T). In the early Holocene, when Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) was at its maximum, the ASM underwent step-like increases in strength, comprising two stages. With the decrease in NHSI during the middle to late-Holocene, the weakening of ASM intensity was characterized by further step-like changes comprising three stages. The transitional phases of the monsoon are broadly correlative with millennial-scale monsoon weakening events associated with Bond events in the North Atlantic region, suggesting that the stepwise evolution of the ASM during the Holocene was caused by the combined effects of changes in NHSI and Bond events. We propose that Bond events may have acted as triggers that caused the ASM to cross a critical threshold, prompting a shift from one regime to another.