Macular ganglion cell–inner plexiform layer thinning as a biomarker of disability progression in relapsing multiple sclerosis

Macular ganglion cell–inner plexiform layer (mGCIPL) is an emerging biomarker of neuroaxonal degeneration in multiple sclerosis (MS).

We aimed to determine cut-off values of mGCIPL thinning for discriminating between progressing and stable patients in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS).

This is a 3-year prospective longitudinal study on 183 RMS patients with annual optical coherence tomography. Best possible cut-off values of baseline mGCIPL and annual loss of macular ganglion cell–inner plexiform layer (aLmGCIPL) for discriminating clinically progressing (physical progression or cognitive decline) from stable patients were defined by receiver operating characteristics analysis and tested using multivariate regression models.

Baseline mGCIPL thickness <77 µm was associated with an increased risk (hazard ratio: 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5–4.7, p < 0.001) of disability progression. An aLmGCIPL cut-off ⩾1 µm accurately identified clinically progressing patients (87% sensitivity at 90% specificity) and was a strong predictor of clinical progression (odds ratio: 18.3, 95% CI: 8.8–50.3).

We present evidence that cross-sectionally measured mGCIPL thickness and annualized thinning rates of mGCIPL are able to identify clinically progressing RMS with high accuracy.