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Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?

Posted on 2019-11-03 - 13:06

We extend the empirical analysis of hot hands in sports to horse racing, using the winning streaks of a sample of jockeys riding in Australia. Grouping jockeys by strike rate (win percentage), we find evidence of hot hands across almost all strike rates. But considering jockeys individually, only a minority exhibit hot hands. A wagering strategy based on hot hands yields a negative return overall and for most hot hand jockeys, although some do yield a positive return. We conclude that hot hands are present but not ubiquitous and that this is generally recognised in the betting market.

JEL Classification: C53, D81, D84

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Australian Journal of Management

AUTHORS (3)

Robert Wrathall
Rod Falvey
Gulasekaran Rajaguru
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